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Week 5 fantasy QB rankings (Standard)

Every QB’s projected points for week 5 in Standard scoring, in the order we pinned them before the first kickoff. Points come first; the Advanced switch adds our model’s number, the last 4 games average, and each player’s z-score and percentile among quarterbacks.

This is week 5 as it was pinned. The current week is week 6.

QBRBWRTEKDEFPPRHalf PPRStandard

The pinned projections, a blend of our model and each player’s last four games · Built Tue, Oct 6, and saved before the first kickoff · fingerprint c9503360: the code that proves these numbers haven’t changed since they were saved

QB · Standard · points
  1. 1Josh AllenBUFvs LAOur model 20.1 · Last 4 games 27.9 · z-score +2.30 · 99th percentile21.6 projected points80% range 12.2 to 32.3
  2. 2Dak PrescottDALvs TBOur model 19.2 · Last 4 games 20.3 · z-score +1.89 · 98th percentile19.4 projected points80% range 10.1 to 30.7
  3. 3Jared GoffDETvs ARIOur model 18.4 · Last 4 games 21.5 · z-score +1.81 · 96th percentile19.0 projected points80% range 9.7 to 30.4
  4. 4Caleb WilliamsCHIvs GBQuestionable (hamstring) on the week 5 official injury report; limitedOur model 17.0 · Last 4 games 22.5 · z-score +1.65 · 95th percentile18.1 projected points80% range 8.9 to 29.8
  5. 5Brock PurdySFvs SEAOur model 15.8 · Last 4 games 25.1 · z-score +1.56 · 94th percentile17.6 projected points80% range 8.4 to 29.4
  6. 6Joe BurrowCINvs MIAOur model 17.1 · Last 4 games 19.2 · z-score +1.54 · 93rd percentile17.5 projected points80% range 8.3 to 29.4
  7. 7Lamar JacksonBALvs ATLOut (ankle) on the week 5 official injury report; dnpOur model 16.8 · Last 4 games 19.8 · z-score +1.52 · 92nd percentile17.4 projected points80% range 8.3 to 29.3
  8. 8Drake MayeNEvs LVOur model 17.9 · Last 4 games 11.9 · z-score +1.39 · 90th percentile16.7 projected points80% range 7.2 to 27.7
  9. 9Tyler ShoughNOvs MINOur model 15.4 · Last 4 games 21.3 · z-score +1.38 · 89th percentile16.6 projected points80% range 7.1 to 27.4
  10. 10Matthew StaffordLAvs BUFOur model 16.7 · Last 4 games 15.4 · z-score +1.35 · 88th percentile16.5 projected points80% range 6.8 to 27.1
  11. 11Bo NixDENvs LACOur model 16.6 · Last 4 games 14.3 · z-score +1.28 · 87th percentile16.1 projected points80% range 6.6 to 26.5
  12. 12Trevor LawrenceJAXvs PHIOur model 15.9 · Last 4 games 16.3 · z-score +1.26 · 85th percentile16.0 projected points80% range 6.6 to 26.4
  13. 13Jalen HurtsPHIvs JAXOur model 15.6 · Last 4 games 16.8 · z-score +1.23 · 84th percentile15.8 projected points80% range 6.6 to 26.1
  14. 14C.J. StroudHOUvs TENOur model 15.4 · Last 4 games 17.1 · z-score +1.21 · 83rd percentile15.7 projected points80% range 6.6 to 25.9
  15. 15Jayden DanielsWASvs NYGOur model 15.5 · Last 4 games 16.2 · z-score +1.20 · 82nd percentile15.7 projected points80% range 6.6 to 25.9
  16. 16Jacoby BrissettARIvs DETOur model 15.4 · Last 4 games 14.8 · z-score +1.13 · 81st percentile15.3 projected points80% range 6.6 to 25.4
  17. 17Kirk CousinsLVvs NEOur model 14.1 · Last 4 games 19.7 · z-score +1.12 · 79th percentile15.2 projected points80% range 6.5 to 25.4
  18. 18Aaron RodgersPITvs INDOur model 15.1 · Last 4 games 15.3 · z-score +1.11 · 78th percentile15.1 projected points80% range 6.4 to 25.4
  19. 19Justin HerbertLACvs DENOur model 15.3 · Last 4 games 10.9 · z-score +0.98 · 77th percentile14.4 projected points80% range 5.6 to 25.1
  20. 20Jordan LoveGBvs CHIOur model 13.8 · Last 4 games 16.2 · z-score +0.95 · 76th percentile14.3 projected points80% range 5.5 to 25.0
  21. 21Sam DarnoldSEAvs SFOur model 14.3 · Last 4 games 13.8 · z-score +0.94 · 74th percentile14.2 projected points80% range 5.4 to 25.0
  22. 22Baker MayfieldTBvs DALOut (thumb) on the week 5 official injury report; dnpOur model 14.5 · Last 4 games 11.7 · z-score +0.89 · 73rd percentile13.9 projected points80% range 5.3 to 24.9
  23. 23Case KeenumCHIvs GBOur model 11.3 · Last 4 games 24.5 · z-score +0.89 · 72nd percentile13.9 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.9
  24. 24Deshaun WatsonCLEvs NYJOur model 12.6 · Last 4 games 16.7 · z-score +0.80 · 71st percentile13.4 projected points80% range 4.9 to 24.6
  25. 25Geno SmithNYJvs CLEOur model 12.9 · Last 4 games 14.9 · z-score +0.77 · 70th percentile13.3 projected points80% range 4.8 to 24.5
  26. 26Daniel JonesINDvs PITOur model 14.2 · Last 4 games 9.1 · z-score +0.76 · 68th percentile13.2 projected points80% range 4.8 to 24.4
  27. 27Michael Penix Jr.ATLvs BALOur model 12.7 · Last 4 games 13.4 · z-score +0.69 · 67th percentile12.8 projected points80% range 4.4 to 23.9
  28. 28Kyler MurrayMINvs NOOur model 14.1 · Last 4 games 7.2 · z-score +0.67 · 66th percentile12.7 projected points80% range 4.3 to 23.8
  29. 29Cam WardTENvs HOUOur model 12.1 · Last 4 games 14.2 · z-score +0.63 · 65th percentile12.5 projected points80% range 4.1 to 23.5
  30. 30Malik WillisMIAvs CINOur model 12.9 · Last 4 games 10.4 · z-score +0.60 · 63rd percentile12.4 projected points80% range 3.9 to 23.3
  31. 31Drew LockSEAvs SFOur model 10.9 · Last 4 games 17.1 · z-score +0.56 · 62nd percentile12.1 projected points80% range 3.7 to 22.9
  32. 32Carson WentzMINvs NOOur model 11.7 · Last 4 games 12.8 · z-score +0.51 · 61st percentile11.9 projected points80% range 3.4 to 22.6
  33. 33Marcus MariotaWASvs NYGOut (knee) on the week 5 official injury report; dnpOur model 11.6 · Last 4 games 11.5 · z-score +0.45 · 60th percentile11.6 projected points80% range 2.9 to 22.2
  34. 34Jameis WinstonNYGvs WASOur model 11.1 · Last 4 games 8.9 · z-score +0.29 · 59th percentile10.7 projected points80% range 1.7 to 21.3
  35. 35Athan KaliakmanisWASvs NYGOur model 9.9 · Last 4 games 11.0 · z-score +0.19 · 57th percentile10.1 projected points80% range 1.1 to 20.8
  36. 36Tyler HuntleyBALvs ATLOur model 10.0 · Last 4 games 4.1 · z-score −0.04 · 56th percentile8.9 projected points80% range 0.6 to 20.5
  37. 37J.McCarthyNYGvs WASOur model 8.6 · z-score −0.09 · 55th percentile8.6 projected points80% range 0.5 to 20.5
  38. 38Jalon DanielsTBvs DALOur model 9.2 · Last 4 games 5.2 · z-score −0.13 · 54th percentile8.4 projected points80% range 0.5 to 20.4
  39. 39Tua TagovailoaATLvs BALOur model 8.3 · z-score −0.15 · 52nd percentile8.3 projected points80% range 0.4 to 20.4
  40. 40Tyson BagentCHIvs GBOur model 7.8 · Last 4 games 5.5 · z-score −0.32 · 51st percentile7.4 projected points80% range 0.1 to 20.2
  41. 41Fernando MendozaLVvs NEOur model 7.0 · z-score −0.38 · 50th percentile7.0 projected points80% range −0.1 to 20.1
  42. 42Cooper RushATLvs BALOur model 7.5 · Last 4 games 2.6 · z-score −0.47 · 49th percentile6.5 projected points80% range −0.2 to 19.7
  43. 43Jack StrandATLvs BALOur model 7.5 · Last 4 games -0.0 · z-score −0.56 · 48th percentile6.0 projected points80% range −0.2 to 18.7
  44. 44Anthony RichardsonINDvs PITOur model 6.0 · z-score −0.57 · 46th percentile6.0 projected points80% range −0.2 to 18.5
  45. 45Mitchell TrubiskyTENvs HOUOur model 5.9 · z-score −0.59 · 45th percentile5.9 projected points80% range −0.2 to 18.4
  46. 46Spencer RattlerNOvs MINOur model 5.8 · z-score −0.60 · 44th percentile5.8 projected points80% range −0.2 to 18.1
  47. 47Carson BeckARIvs DETOur model 5.6 · z-score −0.64 · 43rd percentile5.6 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.7
  48. 48Ty SimpsonLAvs BUFOur model 5.6 · z-score −0.64 · 42nd percentile5.6 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.6
  49. 49Trey LanceLACvs DENDoubtful (groin) on the week 5 official injury report; limitedOur model 5.4 · z-score −0.68 · 40th percentile5.4 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.2
  50. 50Sam HowellDALvs TBOur model 5.3 · z-score −0.69 · 39th percentile5.3 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.1
  51. 51Andy DaltonPHIvs JAXOur model 6.9 · Last 4 games -2.0 · z-score −0.72 · 38th percentile5.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.8
  52. 52Tyrod TaylorGBvs CHIOur model 5.0 · z-score −0.75 · 35th percentile5.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.3
  53. 53Aidan O'ConnellLVvs NEOur model 5.0 · z-score −0.75 · 35th percentile5.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.3
  54. 54Cade KlubnikNYJvs CLEOur model 4.9 · z-score −0.77 · 34th percentile4.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.1
  55. 55Zach WilsonNOvs MINOur model 4.8 · z-score −0.79 · 33rd percentile4.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.8
  56. 56Gardner MinshewARIvs DETOur model 4.7 · z-score −0.81 · 32nd percentile4.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.7
  57. 57Drew AllarPITvs INDOur model 4.5 · z-score −0.84 · 31st percentile4.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.3
  58. 58Tommy DeVitoNEvs LVOur model 5.0 · Last 4 games 1.4 · z-score −0.88 · 29th percentile4.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.8
  59. 59Joe FagnanoBALvs ATLOur model 4.3 · z-score −0.89 · 28th percentile4.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.7
  60. 60Taylen GreenCLEvs NYJOur model 4.2 · z-score −0.90 · 27th percentile4.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.6
  61. 61Cole PaytonPHIvs JAXOur model 4.1 · z-score −0.91 · 26th percentile4.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.3
  62. 62B.CookMIAvs CINOur model 4.1 · z-score −0.92 · 24th percentile4.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.3
  63. 63DJ UiagaleleiLACvs DENOur model 4.1 · z-score −0.92 · 23rd percentile4.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.3
  64. 64Tanner McKeePHIvs JAXOur model 4.0 · z-score −0.92 · 22nd percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.2
  65. 65Shedeur SandersCLEvs NYJOur model 5.0 · Last 4 games 0.0 · z-score −0.92 · 21st percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.2
  66. 66Will HowardPITvs INDOur model 4.0 · z-score −0.94 · 20th percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.1
  67. 67M.BrosmerMINvs NOOur model 4.0 · z-score −0.94 · 18th percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.0
  68. 68Joe FlaccoCINvs MIAOur model 3.9 · z-score −0.95 · 17th percentile3.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.9
  69. 69Kyle McCordMIAvs CINOur model 3.8 · z-score −0.96 · 16th percentile3.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.8
  70. 70Kurtis RourkeSFvs SEAOur model 3.8 · z-score −0.97 · 15th percentile3.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.7
  71. 71Mac JonesSFvs SEAOur model 4.8 · Last 4 games -0.2 · z-score −0.97 · 13th percentile3.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.6
  72. 72R.LeonardINDvs PITOur model 3.7 · z-score −0.98 · 12th percentile3.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.5
  73. 73Sam EhlingerDENvs LACOur model 3.6 · z-score −1.00 · 11th percentile3.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.3
  74. 74Mason RudolphPITvs INDOur model 4.3 · Last 4 games 0.3 · z-score −1.02 · 10th percentile3.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.0
  75. 75Behren MortonNEvs LVOur model 3.5 · z-score −1.03 · 9th percentile3.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  76. 76Davis MillsHOUvs TENOur model 2.9 · z-score −1.13 · 7th percentile2.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  77. 77Kyle AllenBUFvs LAOur model 2.9 · z-score −1.14 · 6th percentile2.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  78. 78Joshua DobbsDETvs ARIOur model 2.6 · z-score −1.19 · 4th percentile2.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  79. 79Stetson BennettLAvs BUFOur model 2.9 · Last 4 games 1.4 · z-score −1.19 · 4th percentile2.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  80. 80Jarrett StidhamDENvs LACOur model 2.5 · z-score −1.21 · 2nd percentile2.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  81. 81Q.EwersJAXvs PHIOur model 2.4 · z-score −1.22 · 1st percentile2.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  82. 82J.MilroeSEAvs SFOur model 1.5 · z-score −1.39 · 0th percentile1.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9

Status is week 5’s official injury report (Out, Doubtful, Questionable) or a reserve list from the weekly rosters (IR, PUP). Facts only: a status never moves a player or changes his points.

Week 5 is graded: see its grade on the track record.

Every position in week 6 · Rest-of-season QB rankings · Rankings and the draft board