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Week 6 fantasy QB rankings (Standard)

Every QB’s projected points for week 6 in Standard scoring, in the order we pinned them before the first kickoff. Points come first; the Advanced switch adds our model’s number, the last 4 games average, and each player’s z-score and percentile among quarterbacks.

QBRBWRTEKDEFPPRHalf PPRStandard

The pinned projections, a blend of our model and each player’s last four games · Built Tue, Oct 13, and saved before the first kickoff · fingerprint 1ac22bf4: the code that proves these numbers haven’t changed since they were saved

QB · Standard · points
  1. 1Josh AllenBUFvs LVOur model 21.4 · Last 4 games 26.6 · z-score +2.29 · 99th percentile22.4 projected points80% range 12.9 to 32.9
  2. 2Brock PurdySFvs WASOur model 19.7 · Last 4 games 23.9 · z-score +1.97 · 97th percentile20.5 projected points80% range 11.2 to 31.6
  3. 3Drake MayeNEvs NYJOur model 19.1 · Last 4 games 19.4 · z-score +1.73 · 96th percentile19.1 projected points80% range 9.8 to 30.5
  4. 4Caleb WilliamsCHIvs ATLOur model 18.0 · Last 4 games 22.5 · z-score +1.69 · 95th percentile18.9 projected points80% range 9.6 to 30.4
  5. 5Patrick MahomesKCvs LACOur model 18.2 · Last 4 games 20.9 · z-score +1.66 · 94th percentile18.8 projected points80% range 9.5 to 30.3
  6. 6Dak PrescottDALvs GBOur model 18.3 · Last 4 games 19.9 · z-score +1.63 · 92nd percentile18.6 projected points80% range 9.4 to 30.2
  7. 7Matthew StaffordLAvs ARIOur model 17.6 · Last 4 games 21.2 · z-score +1.59 · 91st percentile18.3 projected points80% range 9.1 to 30.0
  8. 8Lamar JacksonBALvs CLEOur model 16.6 · Last 4 games 19.8 · z-score +1.40 · 90th percentile17.2 projected points80% range 8.0 to 28.8
  9. 9Jayden DanielsWASvs SFOur model 15.3 · Last 4 games 21.6 · z-score +1.29 · 88th percentile16.6 projected points80% range 7.0 to 27.4
  10. 10Jordan LoveGBvs DALOur model 16.3 · Last 4 games 17.7 · z-score +1.28 · 87th percentile16.5 projected points80% range 6.9 to 27.3
  11. 11Trevor LawrenceJAXvs HOUOur model 16.3 · Last 4 games 15.2 · z-score +1.20 · 86th percentile16.1 projected points80% range 6.6 to 26.4
  12. 12Tyler ShoughNOvs NYGOur model 16.1 · Last 4 games 15.5 · z-score +1.18 · 84th percentile15.9 projected points80% range 6.6 to 26.3
  13. 13Kirk CousinsLVvs BUFOur model 15.0 · Last 4 games 19.7 · z-score +1.18 · 83rd percentile15.9 projected points80% range 6.6 to 26.2
  14. 14Bo NixDENvs SEAOur model 15.8 · Last 4 games 14.9 · z-score +1.13 · 82nd percentile15.7 projected points80% range 6.6 to 25.9
  15. 15Aaron RodgersPITvs TBOur model 15.1 · Last 4 games 17.7 · z-score +1.12 · 81st percentile15.6 projected points80% range 6.6 to 25.8
  16. 16Jalen HurtsPHIvs CAROur model 15.9 · Last 4 games 13.8 · z-score +1.11 · 79th percentile15.5 projected points80% range 6.6 to 25.7
  17. 17C.J. StroudHOUvs JAXOur model 14.6 · Last 4 games 18.2 · z-score +1.07 · 78th percentile15.3 projected points80% range 6.6 to 25.4
  18. 18Bryce YoungCARvs PHIOur model 13.2 · Last 4 games 22.7 · z-score +1.03 · 77th percentile15.1 projected points80% range 6.4 to 25.3
  19. 19Jacoby BrissettARIvs LAOur model 14.5 · Last 4 games 16.7 · z-score +1.01 · 75th percentile14.9 projected points80% range 6.2 to 25.3
  20. 20Daniel JonesINDvs TENOur model 15.7 · Last 4 games 9.6 · z-score +0.93 · 74th percentile14.5 projected points80% range 5.6 to 25.1
  21. 21Deshaun WatsonCLEvs BALOur model 13.4 · Last 4 games 16.3 · z-score +0.84 · 73rd percentile14.0 projected points80% range 5.3 to 24.9
  22. 22Baker MayfieldTBvs PITOur model 14.1 · Last 4 games 11.7 · z-score +0.78 · 71st percentile13.6 projected points80% range 5.0 to 24.7
  23. 23Justin HerbertLACvs KCOur model 14.0 · Last 4 games 10.1 · z-score +0.71 · 70th percentile13.2 projected points80% range 4.8 to 24.4
  24. 24Geno SmithNYJvs NEOur model 12.4 · Last 4 games 15.1 · z-score +0.66 · 69th percentile12.9 projected points80% range 4.5 to 24.0
  25. 25Cam WardTENvs INDOur model 12.9 · Last 4 games 12.5 · z-score +0.65 · 68th percentile12.8 projected points80% range 4.4 to 23.9
  26. 26Michael Penix Jr.ATLvs CHIOur model 12.6 · Last 4 games 13.7 · z-score +0.64 · 66th percentile12.8 projected points80% range 4.3 to 23.8
  27. 27Jameis WinstonNYGvs NOOur model 12.6 · Last 4 games 13.1 · z-score +0.62 · 65th percentile12.7 projected points80% range 4.2 to 23.6
  28. 28Sam DarnoldSEAvs DENOur model 12.3 · Last 4 games 12.4 · z-score +0.57 · 64th percentile12.4 projected points80% range 3.9 to 23.2
  29. 29Tyler HuntleyBALvs CLEOur model 11.8 · Last 4 games 14.1 · z-score +0.54 · 62nd percentile12.2 projected points80% range 3.7 to 23.0
  30. 30Marcus MariotaWASvs SFOur model 11.6 · Last 4 games 11.5 · z-score +0.43 · 61st percentile11.6 projected points80% range 3.0 to 22.3
  31. 31Case KeenumCHIvs ATLOur model 10.8 · Last 4 games 12.6 · z-score +0.36 · 60th percentile11.2 projected points80% range 2.4 to 21.8
  32. 32Drew LockSEAvs DENOur model 9.5 · Last 4 games 17.1 · z-score +0.34 · 58th percentile11.0 projected points80% range 2.2 to 21.6
  33. 33Athan KaliakmanisWASvs SFOur model 10.6 · Last 4 games 11.0 · z-score +0.29 · 57th percentile10.7 projected points80% range 1.7 to 21.3
  34. 34Jalon DanielsTBvs PITOur model 10.4 · Last 4 games 8.1 · z-score +0.15 · 56th percentile9.9 projected points80% range 1.0 to 20.8
  35. 35Justin FieldsKCvs LACOur model 9.1 · z-score +0.02 · 55th percentile9.1 projected points80% range 0.7 to 20.6
  36. 36Tua TagovailoaATLvs CHIOur model 10.8 · Last 4 games -0.6 · z-score −0.08 · 53rd percentile8.6 projected points80% range 0.5 to 20.5
  37. 37Tyson BagentCHIvs ATLOur model 8.4 · Last 4 games 4.0 · z-score −0.25 · 52nd percentile7.6 projected points80% range 0.1 to 20.2
  38. 38Fernando MendozaLVvs BUFOur model 8.3 · Last 4 games 2.2 · z-score −0.34 · 51st percentile7.1 projected points80% range 0.0 to 20.1
  39. 39Jack StrandATLvs CHIOur model 7.1 · Last 4 games -0.0 · z-score −0.57 · 49th percentile5.7 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.9
  40. 40Sam HowellDALvs GBOur model 5.7 · z-score −0.58 · 48th percentile5.7 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.8
  41. 41Cooper RushATLvs CHIOur model 6.2 · Last 4 games 2.6 · z-score −0.61 · 47th percentile5.5 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.4
  42. 42Mitchell TrubiskyTENvs INDOur model 5.3 · z-score −0.65 · 46th percentile5.3 projected points80% range −0.2 to 16.9
  43. 43Tanner McKeePHIvs CAROur model 5.2 · z-score −0.66 · 44th percentile5.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.7
  44. 44Davis MillsHOUvs JAXOur model 5.1 · z-score −0.67 · 43rd percentile5.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.6
  45. 45Sam EhlingerDENvs SEAOur model 5.1 · z-score −0.67 · 42nd percentile5.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.6
  46. 46J.J. McCarthyNYGvs NOOur model 6.3 · Last 4 games 0.2 · z-score −0.68 · 40th percentile5.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.5
  47. 47Gardner MinshewARIvs LAOur model 5.0 · z-score −0.69 · 39th percentile5.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.4
  48. 48Jarrett StidhamDENvs SEAOur model 4.9 · z-score −0.70 · 38th percentile4.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.2
  49. 49Carson BeckARIvs LAOur model 4.8 · z-score −0.72 · 36th percentile4.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.0
  50. 50Spencer RattlerNOvs NYGOur model 4.7 · z-score −0.74 · 35th percentile4.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.8
  51. 51Taylen GreenCLEvs BALOur model 4.7 · z-score −0.74 · 34th percentile4.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.7
  52. 52Cade KlubnikNYJvs NEOur model 4.7 · z-score −0.74 · 33rd percentile4.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.7
  53. 53Anthony RichardsonINDvs TENOur model 4.5 · z-score −0.78 · 31st percentile4.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.2
  54. 54Shedeur SandersCLEvs BALOur model 5.5 · Last 4 games 0.0 · z-score −0.79 · 30th percentile4.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.1
  55. 55Drew AllarPITvs TBOur model 4.4 · z-score −0.80 · 29th percentile4.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.0
  56. 56Jake HaenerNYGvs NOOur model 4.3 · z-score −0.81 · 27th percentile4.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.8
  57. 57Aidan O'ConnellLVvs BUFOur model 4.3 · z-score −0.81 · 26th percentile4.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.8
  58. 58Cole PaytonPHIvs CAROur model 4.2 · z-score −0.83 · 25th percentile4.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.6
  59. 59Haynes KingCARvs PHIOur model 4.0 · z-score −0.86 · 23rd percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.1
  60. 60Will HowardPITvs TBOur model 4.0 · z-score −0.87 · 22nd percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.1
  61. 61Kenny PickettCARvs PHIOur model 4.5 · Last 4 games 1.0 · z-score −0.89 · 21st percentile3.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.7
  62. 62DJ UiagaleleiLACvs KCOur model 3.5 · z-score −0.95 · 20th percentile3.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.0
  63. 63Jalen MilroeSEAvs DENOur model 3.4 · z-score −0.97 · 18th percentile3.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  64. 64Ty SimpsonLAvs ARIOur model 3.4 · z-score −0.97 · 17th percentile3.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  65. 65Mason RudolphPITvs TBOur model 4.2 · Last 4 games 0.1 · z-score −0.97 · 16th percentile3.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  66. 66Quinn EwersJAXvs HOUOur model 3.2 · z-score −1.00 · 14th percentile3.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  67. 67Joe FagnanoBALvs CLEOur model 3.1 · z-score −1.01 · 13th percentile3.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  68. 68Tyrod TaylorGBvs DALOur model 3.8 · Last 4 games -0.2 · z-score −1.03 · 10th percentile3.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  69. 69Zach WilsonNOvs NYGOur model 3.0 · z-score −1.03 · 10th percentile3.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  70. 70Tommy DeVitoNEvs NYJOur model 3.0 · Last 4 games 1.4 · z-score −1.08 · 9th percentile2.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  71. 71Behren MortonNEvs NYJOur model 2.3 · z-score −1.15 · 8th percentile2.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  72. 72Garrett NussmeierKCvs LACOur model 2.1 · z-score −1.18 · 7th percentile2.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  73. 73Mac JonesSFvs WASOur model 2.6 · Last 4 games -0.2 · z-score −1.19 · 5th percentile2.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  74. 74Riley LeonardINDvs TENOur model 2.0 · z-score −1.21 · 4th percentile2.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  75. 75Stetson BennettLAvs ARIOur model 2.0 · Last 4 games 1.4 · z-score −1.22 · 3rd percentile1.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  76. 76Kurtis RourkeSFvs WASOur model 1.8 · z-score −1.23 · 1st percentile1.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9
  77. 77Kyle AllenBUFvs LVOur model 1.2 · z-score −1.33 · 0th percentile1.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 12.9

Week 6 is graded on the track record once its games are played.

Every position in week 6 · Rest-of-season QB rankings · Rankings and the draft board