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Week 4 fantasy QB rankings (PPR)

Every QB’s projected points for week 4 in PPR scoring, in the order we pinned them before the first kickoff. Points come first; the Advanced switch adds our model’s number, the last 4 games average, and each player’s z-score and percentile among quarterbacks.

This is week 4 as it was pinned. The current week is week 6.

QBRBWRTEKDEFPPRHalf PPRStandard

The pinned projections, a blend of our model and each player’s last four games · Built Tue, Sep 29, and saved before the first kickoff · fingerprint 05fc8eb1: the code that proves these numbers haven’t changed since they were saved

QB · PPR · points
  1. 1Josh AllenBUFvs NEOur model 21.4 · Last 4 games 31.3 · z-score +2.49 · 99th percentile23.8 projected points80% range 14.3 to 34.1
  2. 2Patrick MahomesKCvs LVOur model 20.1 · Last 4 games 22.2 · z-score +1.98 · 98th percentile20.6 projected points80% range 11.0 to 31.4
  3. 3Joe BurrowCINvs JAXOur model 19.9 · Last 4 games 17.6 · z-score +1.77 · 97th percentile19.4 projected points80% range 9.7 to 30.4
  4. 4Brock PurdySFvs DENOur model 16.0 · Last 4 games 26.9 · z-score +1.65 · 96th percentile18.6 projected points80% range 8.9 to 29.8
  5. 5Jared GoffDETvs CAROur model 17.2 · Last 4 games 21.9 · z-score +1.61 · 94th percentile18.4 projected points80% range 8.6 to 29.5
  6. 6Tyler ShoughNOvs ATLOur model 16.6 · Last 4 games 23.1 · z-score +1.59 · 93rd percentile18.2 projected points80% range 8.5 to 29.4
  7. 7Lamar JacksonBALvs TENOur model 17.2 · Last 4 games 20.1 · z-score +1.53 · 92nd percentile17.9 projected points80% range 8.1 to 29.1
  8. 8Dak PrescottDALvs HOUOur model 16.8 · Last 4 games 21.0 · z-score +1.52 · 91st percentile17.8 projected points80% range 8.1 to 29.1
  9. 9Bo NixDENvs SFOur model 18.2 · Last 4 games 14.6 · z-score +1.44 · 90th percentile17.3 projected points80% range 7.7 to 28.4
  10. 10Trevor LawrenceJAXvs CINOur model 17.1 · Last 4 games 17.4 · z-score +1.42 · 89th percentile17.2 projected points80% range 7.6 to 28.2
  11. 11Jalen HurtsPHIvs LAOur model 16.6 · Last 4 games 17.8 · z-score +1.38 · 88th percentile16.9 projected points80% range 7.4 to 27.9
  12. 12Jayden DanielsWASvs INDOut (elbow) on the week 4 official injury report; limitedOur model 16.9 · Last 4 games 16.2 · z-score +1.34 · 86th percentile16.7 projected points80% range 7.2 to 27.5
  13. 13C.J. StroudHOUvs DALOur model 16.6 · Last 4 games 15.1 · z-score +1.26 · 85th percentile16.2 projected points80% range 7.1 to 27.1
  14. 14Caleb WilliamsCHIvs NYJOut (hamstring) on the week 4 official injury report; dnpOur model 13.9 · Last 4 games 22.5 · z-score +1.23 · 84th percentile16.0 projected points80% range 7.1 to 26.9
  15. 15Bryce YoungCARvs DETOur model 13.2 · Last 4 games 23.1 · z-score +1.15 · 83rd percentile15.6 projected points80% range 7.1 to 26.6
  16. 16Matthew StaffordLAvs PHIOur model 14.6 · Last 4 games 17.3 · z-score +1.10 · 82nd percentile15.2 projected points80% range 6.5 to 26.0
  17. 17Jacoby BrissettARIvs NYGOur model 14.8 · Last 4 games 16.2 · z-score +1.08 · 81st percentile15.1 projected points80% range 6.3 to 25.8
  18. 18Daniel JonesINDvs WASOur model 16.7 · Last 4 games 9.4 · z-score +1.05 · 80th percentile14.9 projected points80% range 6.0 to 25.4
  19. 19Jordan LoveGBvs TBOur model 13.9 · Last 4 games 17.3 · z-score +1.01 · 78th percentile14.7 projected points80% range 5.5 to 25.0
  20. 20Kirk CousinsLVvs KCOur model 13.2 · Last 4 games 18.8 · z-score +0.99 · 77th percentile14.6 projected points80% range 5.4 to 24.8
  21. 21Drake MayeNEvs BUFOur model 16.9 · Last 4 games 7.2 · z-score +0.99 · 76th percentile14.6 projected points80% range 5.3 to 24.8
  22. 22Sam DarnoldSEAvs LACOur model 14.7 · Last 4 games 14.1 · z-score +0.99 · 75th percentile14.5 projected points80% range 5.3 to 24.7
  23. 23Marcus MariotaWASvs INDOur model 14.3 · Last 4 games 14.6 · z-score +0.97 · 74th percentile14.4 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.7
  24. 24Case KeenumCHIvs NYJOur model 10.9 · Last 4 games 24.5 · z-score +0.94 · 73rd percentile14.2 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.6
  25. 25Justin HerbertLACvs SEAOur model 15.2 · Last 4 games 11.3 · z-score +0.94 · 72nd percentile14.2 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.6
  26. 26Aaron RodgersPITvs CLEOur model 14.2 · Last 4 games 13.1 · z-score +0.89 · 71st percentile13.9 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.5
  27. 27Deshaun WatsonCLEvs PITOur model 12.4 · Last 4 games 18.0 · z-score +0.87 · 69th percentile13.8 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.5
  28. 28Geno SmithNYJvs CHIOur model 12.7 · Last 4 games 17.0 · z-score +0.85 · 68th percentile13.7 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.5
  29. 29Baker MayfieldTBvs GBOut (thumb) on the week 4 official injury report; dnpOur model 14.1 · Last 4 games 11.7 · z-score +0.83 · 67th percentile13.6 projected points80% range 5.2 to 24.4
  30. 30Cam WardTENvs BALOur model 13.1 · Last 4 games 13.7 · z-score +0.78 · 66th percentile13.3 projected points80% range 4.9 to 24.2
  31. 31Kyler MurrayMINvs MIAOur model 15.1 · Last 4 games 5.0 · z-score +0.68 · 65th percentile12.7 projected points80% range 3.8 to 23.6
  32. 32Carson WentzMINvs MIAOur model 11.9 · Last 4 games 12.8 · z-score +0.59 · 64th percentile12.1 projected points80% range 2.8 to 23.0
  33. 33Michael Penix Jr.ATLvs NOOur model 10.9 · Last 4 games 14.0 · z-score +0.52 · 63rd percentile11.7 projected points80% range 2.3 to 22.4
  34. 34Malik WillisMIAvs MINOur model 10.8 · Last 4 games 13.1 · z-score +0.47 · 61st percentile11.3 projected points80% range 1.9 to 22.1
  35. 35Jameis WinstonNYGvs ARIOur model 12.6 · Last 4 games 4.3 · z-score +0.34 · 60th percentile10.6 projected points80% range 1.0 to 21.0
  36. 36Drew LockSEAvs LACOur model 7.8 · Last 4 games 17.1 · z-score +0.26 · 59th percentile10.1 projected points80% range 0.8 to 20.7
  37. 37Tua TagovailoaATLvs NOOur model 8.5 · z-score 0.00 · 58th percentile8.5 projected points80% range 0.3 to 19.8
  38. 38Fernando MendozaLVvs KCOur model 6.4 · z-score −0.33 · 57th percentile6.4 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.9
  39. 39Justin FieldsKCvs LVOur model 6.3 · z-score −0.35 · 56th percentile6.3 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.7
  40. 40Tanner McKeePHIvs LAOur model 6.1 · z-score −0.37 · 55th percentile6.1 projected points80% range −0.2 to 17.4
  41. 41Aidan O'ConnellLVvs KCQuestionable (not injury related - personal matter) on the week 4 official injury report; dnpOur model 5.7 · z-score −0.44 · 53rd percentile5.7 projected points80% range −0.2 to 16.8
  42. 42Mitchell TrubiskyTENvs BALOur model 5.3 · z-score −0.51 · 52nd percentile5.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.1
  43. 43Trey LanceLACvs SEAQuestionable (groin) on the week 4 official injury report; limitedOur model 5.3 · z-score −0.52 · 51st percentile5.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 16.0
  44. 44Jack StrandATLvs NOOur model 6.4 · Last 4 games -0.0 · z-score −0.59 · 50th percentile4.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.3
  45. 45Tommy DeVitoNEvs BUFOur model 5.9 · Last 4 games 1.4 · z-score −0.59 · 49th percentile4.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.3
  46. 46Cooper RushATLvs NOOur model 5.4 · Last 4 games 2.6 · z-score −0.61 · 48th percentile4.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 15.1
  47. 47Andy DaltonPHIvs LAOur model 6.7 · Last 4 games -2.0 · z-score −0.63 · 47th percentile4.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.9
  48. 48Haynes KingCARvs DETOur model 4.5 · z-score −0.63 · 46th percentile4.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.8
  49. 49Kenny PickettCARvs DETOur model 5.7 · Last 4 games 1.0 · z-score −0.64 · 44th percentile4.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.8
  50. 50Cole PaytonPHIvs LAOur model 4.5 · z-score −0.64 · 43rd percentile4.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.7
  51. 51Jalon DanielsTBvs GBOur model 6.3 · Last 4 games -1.1 · z-score −0.64 · 42nd percentile4.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.7
  52. 52Anthony RichardsonINDvs WASOur model 4.4 · z-score −0.65 · 41st percentile4.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.7
  53. 53Cade KlubnikNYJvs CHIOur model 4.3 · z-score −0.67 · 40th percentile4.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.5
  54. 54Shedeur SandersCLEvs PITOur model 5.6 · Last 4 games 0.0 · z-score −0.68 · 39th percentile4.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.3
  55. 55Carson BeckARIvs NYGOur model 4.2 · z-score −0.70 · 38th percentile4.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.2
  56. 56Athan KaliakmanisWASvs INDOur model 4.2 · z-score −0.70 · 36th percentile4.2 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.2
  57. 57Q.EwersJAXvs CINOur model 4.1 · z-score −0.70 · 35th percentile4.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 14.2
  58. 58Taylen GreenCLEvs PITOur model 4.0 · z-score −0.72 · 34th percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.9
  59. 59Tyson BagentCHIvs NYJOur model 4.6 · Last 4 games 2.2 · z-score −0.73 · 33rd percentile4.0 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.9
  60. 60J.McCarthyMINvs MIAOur model 3.9 · z-score −0.73 · 31st percentile3.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.8
  61. 61B.CookMIAvs MINOur model 3.9 · z-score −0.73 · 31st percentile3.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.8
  62. 62Spencer RattlerNOvs ATLOur model 3.9 · z-score −0.74 · 30th percentile3.9 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.8
  63. 63Joe FlaccoCINvs JAXOur model 3.8 · z-score −0.75 · 28th percentile3.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.7
  64. 64Sam HowellDALvs HOUOur model 3.8 · z-score −0.76 · 27th percentile3.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.6
  65. 65Davis MillsHOUvs DALOur model 3.8 · z-score −0.76 · 26th percentile3.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.5
  66. 66Tyrod TaylorGBvs TBOur model 3.7 · z-score −0.77 · 25th percentile3.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.4
  67. 67Mason RudolphPITvs CLEOur model 4.7 · Last 4 games 0.3 · z-score −0.78 · 24th percentile3.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.4
  68. 68Jake HaenerNYGvs ARIOur model 3.6 · z-score −0.78 · 23rd percentile3.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.3
  69. 69Gardner MinshewARIvs NYGOur model 3.6 · z-score −0.79 · 22nd percentile3.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.2
  70. 70Behren MortonNEvs BUFOur model 3.4 · z-score −0.82 · 21st percentile3.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  71. 71R.LeonardINDvs WASOur model 3.3 · z-score −0.83 · 19th percentile3.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  72. 72Sam EhlingerDENvs SFOur model 2.8 · z-score −0.91 · 18th percentile2.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  73. 73Ty SimpsonLAvs PHIOur model 2.7 · z-score −0.94 · 17th percentile2.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  74. 74DJ UiagaleleiLACvs SEAOur model 2.6 · z-score −0.95 · 16th percentile2.6 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  75. 75Kyle McCordMIAvs MINOur model 2.5 · z-score −0.96 · 15th percentile2.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  76. 76Garrett NussmeierKCvs LVOur model 2.4 · z-score −0.98 · 14th percentile2.4 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  77. 77Drew AllarPITvs CLEOur model 2.3 · z-score −1.00 · 13th percentile2.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  78. 78Mac JonesSFvs DENOur model 3.0 · Last 4 games -0.2 · z-score −1.00 · 11th percentile2.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  79. 79Stetson BennettLAvs PHIOur model 2.3 · Last 4 games 1.4 · z-score −1.03 · 10th percentile2.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  80. 80Zach WilsonNOvs ATLOur model 2.1 · z-score −1.03 · 9th percentile2.1 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  81. 81Will HowardPITvs CLEOur model 1.7 · z-score −1.10 · 7th percentile1.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  82. 82Kurtis RourkeSFvs DENOur model 1.7 · z-score −1.10 · 7th percentile1.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  83. 83Tyler HuntleyBALvs TENOur model 1.7 · z-score −1.10 · 6th percentile1.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  84. 84J.MilroeSEAvs LACOur model 1.5 · z-score −1.13 · 5th percentile1.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  85. 85Jarrett StidhamDENvs SFOur model 1.3 · z-score −1.16 · 3rd percentile1.3 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  86. 86Kyle AllenBUFvs NEOur model 0.8 · z-score −1.23 · 2nd percentile0.8 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  87. 87Joe FagnanoBALvs TENOur model 0.7 · z-score −1.26 · 1st percentile0.7 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1
  88. 88Joshua DobbsDETvs CAROur model 0.5 · z-score −1.30 · 0th percentile0.5 projected points80% range −0.3 to 13.1

Status is week 4’s official injury report (Out, Doubtful, Questionable) or a reserve list from the weekly rosters (IR, PUP). Facts only: a status never moves a player or changes his points.

Week 4 is graded: see its grade on the track record.

Every position in week 6 · Rest-of-season QB rankings · Rankings and the draft board